La Liga, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Bernabéu
Real Madrid — Villarreal
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Real Madrid to win (67%), came true.
Real Madrid are clear favourites: 67% against 13% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Madrid are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 4 wins, Villarreal 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Madrid — Villarreal What is xG? | 2.4–1.1 | |
| Real Madrid not to lose | 87% | |
| Villarreal not to lose | 33% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Atlético Madrid1:2
- 15.09away · Elche3:2
- 12.09Rayo Vallecano4:1
- 08.09Inter2:1
- 04.09away · Real Betis0:1
- 20.09Levante3:1
- 17.09away · Málaga3:1
- 14.09Real Betis1:2
- 08.09away · Borussia Dortmund2:3
- 05.09Deportivo A Coruña2:3
Head to head
- 24.01.2026Villarreal — Real Madrid0:2
- 04.10.2025Real Madrid — Villarreal3:1
- 15.03.2025Villarreal — Real Madrid1:2
- 05.10.2024Real Madrid — Villarreal2:0
- 19.05.2024Villarreal — Real Madrid4:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 4, Champions League | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
Next matches
- VillarrealNapoli13 October · Champions League4027341The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- RomaReal Madrid14 October · Champions League3626382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
La Liga on the same day
- 3428382The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
- 841241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →