La Liga, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio de Mendizorroza
Deportivo Alavés — Atlético Madrid
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1:2Came true
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético Madrid to win (38%), came true.
Evenly matched: Deportivo Alavés 34%, Atlético Madrid 38%, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Atlético Madrid: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Alavés 1 win, Atlético Madrid 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés — Atlético Madrid What is xG? | 1.2–1.3 | |
| Deportivo Alavés not to lose | 62% | |
| Atlético Madrid not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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- Handicap Deportivo Alavés
- Deportivo Alavés goals
- Atlético Madrid goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Athletic Club0:0
- 15.09Valencia0:1
- 12.09away · Racing Santander1:2
- 06.09Osasuna5:2
- 28.08Villarreal1:0
- 20.09Real Madrid2:1
- 16.09Osasuna4:0
- 13.09away · Real Sociedad3:0
- 09.09away · Liverpool1:2
- 05.09away · Athletic Club0:3
Head to head
- 18.01.2026Atlético Madrid — Deportivo Alavés1:0
- 30.08.2025Deportivo Alavés — Atlético Madrid1:1
- 03.05.2025Deportivo Alavés — Atlético Madrid0:0
- 23.11.2024Atlético Madrid — Deportivo Alavés2:1
- 21.04.2024Deportivo Alavés — Atlético Madrid2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | +27 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 3, Champions League | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruña | 8 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
Next matches
- Atlético MadridManchester United13 October · Champions League5125241The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- Celta VigoDeportivo Alavés18 October · La Liga4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
La Liga on the same day
- 841241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 6720131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 3:0.3.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →