Segunda Division, round 8 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Campo José Luis Orbegozo
Real Sociedad B — Granada
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In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Real Sociedad B to win (40%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 40% fails in about 60 matches out of 100 on average.
Real Sociedad B are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Sociedad B — Granada What is xG? | 1.2–1.1 | |
| Real Sociedad B not to lose | 69% | |
| Granada not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Real Sociedad B
- Real Sociedad B goals
- Granada goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 26.09away · AD Ceuta FC1:3
- 19.09Mallorca0:1
- 12.09away · FC Andorra3:1
- 05.09Tenerife1:1
- 31.08away · Burgos CF2:2
- 26.09FC Andorra2:3
- 20.09away · Leganés2:3
- 12.09Albacete1:1
- 06.09away · Eibar0:3
- 30.08away · Córdoba3:1
Head to head
- 22.03.2026Real Sociedad B — Granada0:2
- 04.10.2025Granada — Real Sociedad B5:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Real Oviedo | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada | 9 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Real Valladolid | 9 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 18 | Córdoba | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 19, Relegation | Real Sociedad B | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 20, Relegation | Cádiz | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Next matches
- Celta FortunaReal Sociedad B10 October · Segunda Division4228301The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- Burgos CFGranada12 October · Segunda Division4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
Segunda Division on the same day
- 4826261The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 7515101The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 3:1.3.7
- 3931301The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
- 5424221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →