Segunda Division, round 8 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Estadio SkyFi Castalia
Castellón — AD Ceuta FC
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Castellón to win (75%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 75% fails in about 25 matches out of 100 on average.
Castellón are clear favourites: 75% against 10% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 72%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Castellón are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Castellón — AD Ceuta FC What is xG? | 2.8–1.0 | |
| Castellón not to lose | 90% | |
| AD Ceuta FC not to lose | 25% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 72% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 28% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Castellón
- Castellón goals
- AD Ceuta FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 28.09away · Leganés2:0
- 19.09Tenerife5:0
- 12.09away · Girona2:1
- 06.09Albacete2:0
- 31.08away · Celta Fortuna2:1
- 26.09Real Sociedad B3:1
- 20.09Real Valladolid1:1
- 11.09away · Burgos CF1:3
- 05.09Celta Fortuna0:2
- 30.08away · Mallorca0:3
Head to head
- 09.05.2026AD Ceuta FC — Castellón1:1
- 14.09.2025Castellón — AD Ceuta FC3:3
Table
Next matches
- AD Ceuta FCSabadell10 October · Segunda Division2528472The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- FC AndorraCastellón11 October · Segunda Division3227412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
Segunda Division on the same day
- 4029311The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 4826261The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 3931301The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
- 5424221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →