UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Stadio Olimpico
Roma — Real Madrid
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 October
In short
Roma are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Roma: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Roma — Real Madrid What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Roma not to lose | 70% | |
| Real Madrid not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Roma
- Roma goals
- Real Madrid goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Villarreal1:0
- 20.09away · Atlético Madrid1:2
- 15.09away · Elche3:2
- 12.09Rayo Vallecano4:1
- 08.09Inter2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sabah FK | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Champions League on the same day
- 3727372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 2726472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 3827361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 1320672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →