UEFA Europa League, round 2 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Red Bull Arena
Salzburg — Milan
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Milan are slightly stronger: 41% against 32%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Milan are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Salzburg — Milan What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Salzburg not to lose | 59% | |
| Milan not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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- Salzburg goals
- Milan goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10away · Grazer AK0:0
- 20.09Sturm Graz3:0
- 17.09away · Levski Sofia1:0
- 11.09away · Ried1:1
- 02.09Rapid Wien5:1
Head to head
- 02.11.2022Milan — Salzburg4:0
- 06.09.2022Salzburg — Milan1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Salzburg | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Milan | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 2926452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →