UEFA Nations League, round 2, League C, group 1 · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle
San Marino — Albania
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0:3Came true
In short
Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Albania to win (93%), came true.
Albania are clear favourites: 93% against 1% for the opponent, draw 7%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 15%.
Why
- National-team Elo: San Marino 822, Albania 1631 — Albania clearly rated higher.
- San Marino: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- San Marino: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: San Marino 0 wins, Albania 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: San Marino — Albania What is xG? | 0.2–3.1 | |
| San Marino not to lose | 7% | |
| Albania not to lose | 99% | |
| No draw | 93% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 15% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 85% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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- Handicap San Marino
- San Marino goals
- Albania goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 26.09Finland0:7
- 09.06away · Azerbaijan1:2
- 05.06Bangladesh1:2
- 31.03Andorra0:0
- 28.03Faroe Islands1:2
Head to head
- 08.09.2021Albania — San Marino5:0
- 31.03.2021San Marino — Albania0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Albania | 4 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Finland | 4 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| 3 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | -15 | 0 |
Next matches
- FinlandAlbania3 October · UEFA Nations League3432341The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- BelarusSan Marino3 October · UEFA Nations League871121The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5725191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 919722The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.3.0
- 771671The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 1925562The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5428181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 7021101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4629251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 93% will not happen in roughly 7 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →