Norwegian Eliteserien, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Sarpsborg 08 — Aalesund
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sarpsborg 08 are clear favourites: 61% against 18% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 76%, both teams to score — 72%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sarpsborg 08 are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 — Aalesund What is xG? | 2.5–1.4 | |
| Sarpsborg 08 not to lose | 82% | |
| Aalesund not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 28% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 76% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 24% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sarpsborg 08
- Sarpsborg 08 goals
- Aalesund goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 11.10away · Aalesund4:2
- 18.09KFUM1:3
- 13.09away · Fredrikstad1:1
- 06.09Vålerenga2:2
- 30.08away · Tromsø0:0
- 11.10Sarpsborg 082:4
- 19.09away · Molde2:1
- 13.09away · KFUM1:2
- 04.09Start2:0
- 30.08away · Viking1:2
Head to head
- 11.10.2026Aalesund — Sarpsborg 082:4
- 22.10.2023Aalesund — Sarpsborg 083:2
- 29.05.2023Sarpsborg 08 — Aalesund3:1
- 11.09.2022Aalesund — Sarpsborg 081:3
- 22.05.2022Sarpsborg 08 — Aalesund1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 22 | 7 | -3 | 28 |
| 10 | KFUM | 22 | 8 | -9 | 28 |
| 13 | Vålerenga | 22 | 6 | -10 | 23 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | -15 | 21 |
| 15, Relegation | Kristiansund | 22 | 5 | -21 | 19 |
Eliteserien on the same day
- VikingTromsøpreliminary6023171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- LillestrømBrannpreliminary3528372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- KristiansundKFUMpreliminary353035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- StartSandefjordpreliminary4326301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- MoldeFredrikstadpreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →