Norwegian Eliteserien, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Molde — Fredrikstad
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Molde are clear favourites: 69% against 12% for the opponent, draw 19%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Molde are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Molde — Fredrikstad What is xG? | 2.3–0.9 | |
| Molde not to lose | 88% | |
| Fredrikstad not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Molde
- Molde goals
- Fredrikstad goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Lillestrøm2:2
- 19.09Aalesund1:2
- 13.09away · Hamarkameratene5:1
- 06.09KFUM2:0
- 30.08away · Vålerenga4:3
- 11.10Tromsø1:1
- 20.09away · Vålerenga1:1
- 13.09Sarpsborg 081:1
- 04.09Bodø/Glimt1:2
- 30.08away · Lillestrøm4:1
Head to head
- 13.09.2025Molde — Fredrikstad1:2
- 12.07.2025Fredrikstad — Molde4:2
- 14.09.2024Molde — Fredrikstad6:1
- 13.07.2024Fredrikstad — Molde0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Tromsø | 22 | 11 | +11 | 39 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Molde | 22 | 11 | +12 | 37 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | +9 | 34 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | +5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 22 | 7 | -3 | 28 |
Eliteserien on the same day
- VikingTromsøpreliminary6023171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- LillestrømBrannpreliminary3528372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- KristiansundKFUMpreliminary353035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Sarpsborg 08Aalesundpreliminary6121181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.9
- StartSandefjordpreliminary4326301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →