Ukrainian Premier League, round 10 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Shakhtar Donetsk — Zorya
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites: 80% against 6% for the opponent, draw 14%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Shakhtar Donetsk are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Shakhtar Donetsk — No. 1, 21 pts; Zorya — No. 6, 11 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Shakhtar Donetsk: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 4 wins, Zorya 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk — Zorya What is xG? | 2.4–0.7 | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose | 94% | |
| Zorya not to lose | 20% | |
| No draw | 86% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk goals
- Zorya goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Veres Rivne3:0
- 20.09LNZ Cherkasy3:0
- 14.09Chornomorets Odesa2:0
- 10.09away · PSV Eindhoven1:1
- 05.09away · Karpaty2:1
- 12.10away · Liviy Bereh3:1
- 19.09Dynamo Kyiv0:2
- 13.09away · Bukovyna Chernivtsi1:1
- 06.09away · Veres Rivne1:1
- 31.08FC Kharkiv0:3
Head to head
- 23.04.2026Zorya — Shakhtar Donetsk1:2
- 22.09.2025Shakhtar Donetsk — Zorya1:0
- 09.05.2025Zorya — Shakhtar Donetsk0:0
- 10.11.2024Shakhtar Donetsk — Zorya3:1
- 22.04.2024Shakhtar Donetsk — Zorya2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | +14 | 21 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Polissya Zhytomyr | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | +9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- Liviy BerehLNZ Cherkasypreliminary253441XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.7
- Epitsentr Kamianets-PodilskyiFC Kharkivpreliminary2229502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →