Uzbekistan Super League, round 26 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Sogdiana — Buxoro
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Sogdiana 35%, Buxoro 40%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 72%, both teams to score — 74%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Sogdiana — No. 11, 28 pts; Buxoro — No. 6, 37 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sogdiana — Buxoro What is xG? | 1.9–2.0 | |
| Sogdiana not to lose | 60% | |
| Buxoro not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 26% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 72% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 28% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sogdiana
- Sogdiana goals
- Buxoro goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Lokomotiv Tashkent2:3
- 20.09AGMK1:2
- 10.09away · Xorazm0:0
- 05.09Mashal Muborak5:2
- 23.08away · Neftchi Fargona0:3
- 09.10Andijon3:2
- 19.09away · Bunyodkor Tashkent1:2
- 11.09Navbahor Namangan1:4
- 05.09away · Qizilqum Zarafshon2:3
- 24.08away · Kokand 19121:1
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Buxoro — Sogdiana2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | +4 | 37 |
| 7 | AGMK | 23 | 10 | +2 | 36 |
| 10 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 23 | 9 | -7 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 23 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon-2011 | 23 | 7 | -9 | 27 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- Kokand 1912Qizilqum Zarafshonpreliminary4230281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- XorazmPakhtakor Tashkentpreliminary1925562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →