UEFA Europa League, round 2 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · epet ARENA
Sparta Prague — Lillestrøm
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Sparta Prague are clear favourites: 55% against 21% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sparta Prague are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sparta Prague — Lillestrøm What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Sparta Prague not to lose | 79% | |
| Lillestrøm not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sparta Prague
- Sparta Prague goals
- Lillestrøm goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 16.09away · Ararat Armenia4:1
- 19.03AZ Alkmaar0:4
- 12.03away · AZ Alkmaar1:2
- 18.12Aberdeen3:0
- 11.12away · Universitatea Craiova2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Sparta Prague | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Union St.Gilloise | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3226412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 2926452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →