Nigeria NPFL, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK
Sporting Lagos — Bendel Insurance
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Sporting Lagos to win (52%), came true.
Sporting Lagos are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sporting Lagos — Bendel Insurance What is xG? | 1.5–0.9 | |
| Sporting Lagos not to lose | 78% | |
| Bendel Insurance not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sporting Lagos
- Sporting Lagos goals
- Bendel Insurance goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.10away · Kano Pillars1:1
- 30.09Ikorodu City0:0
- 26.09Barau1:1
- 23.09away · Enyimba3:2
- 20.09Abia Warriors0:2
- 04.10Barau4:1
- 27.09away · Abia Warriors0:3
- 23.09Ikorodu City2:1
- 19.09away · Ranchers Bees1:2
- 13.09Kun Khalifat4:2
Head to head
- 18.02.2024Sporting Lagos — Bendel Insurance1:0
- 20.01.2024Bendel Insurance — Sporting Lagos3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ikorodu City | 8 | 3 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Bendel Insurance | 8 | 4 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Sporting Lagos | 8 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Katsina United | 8 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
Next matches
- Plateau UnitedSporting Lagos18 October · Nigeria NPFL6920111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Enugu RangersBendel Insurance18 October · Nigeria NPFL731791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- 4231281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.1.8
- 5029211The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.8
- 5825181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.4
- 6621131The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.4
- 6323141The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 6822101The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →