Major League Soccer (MLS), round 33 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
St. Louis City — San Diego FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
St. Louis City are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings St. Louis City are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: St. Louis City — No. 3, 50 pts; San Diego FC — No. 21, 32 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
- St. Louis City: 5 wins in a row; San Diego FC: winless in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: St. Louis City 0 wins, San Diego FC 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: St. Louis City — San Diego FC What is xG? | 2.1–1.3 | |
| St. Louis City not to lose | 80% | |
| San Diego FC not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap St. Louis City
- St. Louis City goals
- San Diego FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10LA Galaxy6:2
- 01.10away · Red Bull New York3:0
- 20.09Toronto FC3:1
- 17.09away · Colorado Rapids3:0
- 13.09Minnesota United4:2
- 11.10away · Red Bull New York1:4
- 27.09away · Austin FC3:3
- 21.09away · Inter Miami CF2:2
- 14.09Philadelphia Union0:5
- 10.09San Jose Earthquakes2:3
Head to head
- 02.03.2026San Diego FC — St. Louis City2:0
- 11.05.2025St. Louis City — San Diego FC1:2
- 02.03.2025San Diego FC — St. Louis City0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | +31 | 51 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | +16 | 50 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Inter Miami CF | 28 | 13 | +18 | 49 |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | -3 | 33 |
| 21 | San Diego FC | 28 | 8 | -3 | 32 |
| 22 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
MLS on the same day
- Charlotte FCOrlando Citypreliminary5125251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.7
- FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia Unionpreliminary3026442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.6
- Columbus CrewDC Unitedpreliminary5425201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- New York City FCCF Montréalpreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Sporting Kansas CityFC Dallaspreliminary3227412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →