Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 11 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Telstar — FC Utrecht
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Utrecht are slightly stronger: 39% against 32%, draw 29%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 69%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Utrecht are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Telstar — No. 15, 6 pts; FC Utrecht — No. 13, 8 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Telstar: winless in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: Telstar 0 wins, FC Utrecht 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Telstar — FC Utrecht What is xG? | 1.6–1.7 | |
| Telstar not to lose | 61% | |
| FC Utrecht not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 31% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Telstar
- Telstar goals
- FC Utrecht goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10ADO Den Haag2:2
- 20.09away · AZ Alkmaar0:1
- 13.09away · SC Heerenveen0:0
- 09.09away · FC Twente0:1
- 06.09Cambuur2:2
- 11.10Willem II3:1
- 20.09away · Feyenoord0:5
- 13.09away · Excelsior2:1
- 08.09Go Ahead Eagles3:3
- 30.08PSV Eindhoven1:6
Head to head
- 11.04.2026FC Utrecht — Telstar4:1
- 23.11.2025Telstar — FC Utrecht1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | FC Utrecht | 8 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | -15 | 4 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- PEC ZwolleADO Den Haagpreliminary3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- ExcelsiorFC Twentepreliminary1726572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
- FC GroningenSparta Rotterdampreliminary5227221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →