Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 11 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Excelsior — FC Twente
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Twente are clear favourites: 57% against 17% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Twente are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Excelsior — No. 9, 11 pts; FC Twente — No. 4, 17 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Excelsior: winless in 4; FC Twente: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Excelsior 1 win, FC Twente 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Excelsior — FC Twente What is xG? | 1.2–2.0 | |
| Excelsior not to lose | 43% | |
| FC Twente not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Excelsior
- Excelsior goals
- FC Twente goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10FC Groningen1:5
- 19.09away · Ajax2:2
- 13.09FC Utrecht1:2
- 08.09away · NEC Nijmegen2:2
- 05.09away · Willem II3:0
- 10.10away · Fortuna Sittard1:1
- 20.09PSV Eindhoven3:2
- 12.09ADO Den Haag2:0
- 09.09Telstar1:0
- 06.09away · FC Groningen2:2
Head to head
- 24.01.2026FC Twente — Excelsior0:0
- 30.08.2025Excelsior — FC Twente1:0
- 10.02.2024Excelsior — FC Twente0:3
- 08.12.2023FC Twente — Excelsior4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- PEC ZwolleADO Den Haagpreliminary3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- TelstarFC Utrechtpreliminary3229392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
- FC GroningenSparta Rotterdampreliminary5227221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →