Kazakhstan Premier League, round 28 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK
Tobol Kostanay — FC Astana
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2:1Missed
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, FC Astana to win (45%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 45% fails in about 55 matches out of 100 on average.
FC Astana are slightly stronger: 45% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Astana are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Tobol Kostanay 2 wins, FC Astana 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tobol Kostanay — FC Astana What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| Tobol Kostanay not to lose | 55% | |
| FC Astana not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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Form
- 17.09FC Yelimay0:2
- 13.09away · Kairat Almaty4:1
- 06.09Ulytau3:1
- 30.08away · Kaspiy Aktau0:1
- 25.08Kaisar Kyzylorda3:2
- 17.09Kairat Almaty1:0
- 12.09away · Ordabasy Shymkent0:1
- 06.09FC Yelimay4:0
- 30.08away · Atyrau3:2
- 16.08away · FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk1:1
Head to head
- 20.03.2026FC Astana — Tobol Kostanay2:0
- 19.09.2025Tobol Kostanay — FC Astana2:3
- 10.05.2025FC Astana — Tobol Kostanay1:3
- 03.11.2024Tobol Kostanay — FC Astana1:0
- 21.04.2024FC Astana — Tobol Kostanay2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | +32 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 26 | 14 | +16 | 48 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | +9 | 45 |
| 6 | FC Yelimay | 26 | 10 | 0 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 27 | 11 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 27 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
Next matches
- Irtysh PavlodarFC Astana14 October · Kazakhstan Premier League · live1724592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Tobol KostanayZhenis17 October · Kazakhstan Premier League5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 4429271The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 4427291The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
- 89831The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 5129211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →