J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Tokyo Verdy — Avispa Fukuoka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Tokyo Verdy 35%, Avispa Fukuoka 33%, draw 32%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Tokyo Verdy — No. 20, 4 pts; Avispa Fukuoka — No. 17, 7 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Tokyo Verdy: winless in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Tokyo Verdy 1 win, Avispa Fukuoka 0, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tokyo Verdy — Avispa Fukuoka What is xG? | 1.1–1.0 | |
| Tokyo Verdy not to lose | 67% | |
| Avispa Fukuoka not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tokyo Verdy
- Tokyo Verdy goals
- Avispa Fukuoka goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:2
- 19.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds1:3
- 13.09JEF United Chiba1:1
- 06.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 02.09Vissel Kobe0:2
- 10.10Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 19.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:1
- 12.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse0:1
- 05.09Mito Hollyhock1:1
- 02.09Urawa Red Diamonds2:3
Head to head
- 08.11.2025Tokyo Verdy — Avispa Fukuoka0:0
- 31.05.2025Avispa Fukuoka — Tokyo Verdy0:0
- 20.07.2024Avispa Fukuoka — Tokyo Verdy0:1
- 28.04.2024Tokyo Verdy — Avispa Fukuoka0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
J1 League on the same day
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaShimizu S-Pulsepreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Kashima AntlersKashiwa Reysolpreliminary362935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- Vissel KobeMachida Zelviapreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Gamba OsakaKyoto Sanga FCpreliminary4627261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →