Copa del Rey · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
UD Llanera — Ponferradina
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ponferradina are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ponferradina are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: UD Llanera — Ponferradina What is xG? | 0.9–2.0 | |
| UD Llanera not to lose | 39% | |
| Ponferradina not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap UD Llanera
- UD Llanera goals
- Ponferradina goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.12Racing Santander1:2
- 30.10away · Logroñés3:1
- 05.01Real Sociedad0:2
- 05.12Castellón1:1
- 30.10away · UM Escobedo0:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Copa del Rey on the same day
- CD CuarteGironapreliminary613812The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.5
- CF CalamochaCE Europapreliminary3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Atletico PinatarenseElchepreliminary714792The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.4
- SestaoEspanyolpreliminary815772The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.3
- CE ManresaSant Andreupreliminary3026432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- CastellonenseAlmeríapreliminary815772The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.3
- CD Atlético PasoCórdobapreliminary1521642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Atlético TordesillasCD Mirandéspreliminary2024572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →