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UEFA Nations League, round 3, League B, group 2 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Ukraine — Northern Ireland

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Model prediction and result

0:3Missed
Ukraine46%
Draw30%
Northern Ireland24%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Ukraine to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.

Ukraine are clear favourites: 46% against 24% for the opponent, draw 30%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Ukraine 1798, Northern Ireland 1630 — Ukraine clearly rated higher.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ukraine — Northern Ireland What is xG?1.4–0.9
Ukraine not to lose76%
Northern Ireland not to lose54%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.541%
Total under 2.559%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Ukraine
  • Ukraine goals
  • Northern Ireland goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Ukraine

  • 28.09away · Georgia0:0
  • 25.09away · Hungary1:0
  • 31.05away · Poland2:0
  • 31.03Albania1:0
  • 26.03Sweden1:3

Northern Ireland

  • 28.09Hungary0:0
  • 25.09away · Georgia1:0
  • 08.06away · France1:3
  • 04.06Guinea1:0
  • 31.03away · Wales1:1

Head to head

  • 03.06.2021Ukraine — Northern Ireland1:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveNorthern Ireland42204–0+48
2, Promotion play-offsHungary42113–2+17
3Ukraine41122–5-34
4, Relegation play-offGeorgia40220–2-22

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • UkraineHungary5 October · UEFA Nations League
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
  • Northern IrelandGeorgia5 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KazakhstanMoldova
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
  • CyprusArmenia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
  • LatviaMontenegro
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
  • BelgiumTurkiye
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
  • FranceItaly
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
  • HungaryGeorgia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaSweden
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
  • PolandRomania
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →