K League 1 (South Korea), round 32 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Ulsan HD FC — Bucheon FC 1995
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In short
Ulsan HD FC are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ulsan HD FC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Ulsan HD FC — No. 2, 47 pts; Bucheon FC 1995 — No. 11, 32 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
- Bucheon FC 1995: winless in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: Ulsan HD FC 2 wins, Bucheon FC 1995 0.
- Days of rest before the match: Ulsan HD FC 6, Bucheon FC 1995 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ulsan HD FC — Bucheon FC 1995 What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Ulsan HD FC not to lose | 81% | |
| Bucheon FC 1995 not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ulsan HD FC
- Ulsan HD FC goals
- Bucheon FC 1995 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Gwangju FC3:4
- 19.09away · FC Anyang1:2
- 12.09Incheon United2:1
- 08.09FC Seoul1:0
- 05.09away · Jeju SK0:0
- 09.10away · Gangwon FC0:2
- 19.09Gimcheon Sangmu0:2
- 12.09Jeju SK2:2
- 08.09away · Incheon United1:2
- 05.09Daejeon Hana Citizen0:5
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Ulsan HD FC — Bucheon FC 19951:0
- 15.03.2026Bucheon FC 1995 — Ulsan HD FC1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | FC Seoul | 31 | 20 | +32 | 65 |
| 2, Championship round | Ulsan HD FC | 31 | 14 | +4 | 47 |
| 3, Championship round | Gangwon FC | 31 | 11 | +10 | 46 |
| 10, Relegation round | Gimcheon Sangmu | 31 | 5 | -7 | 33 |
| 11, Relegation round | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
| 12, Relegation play-off | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | -41 | 18 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →