K League 1 (South Korea): 2026 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 12 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 12 matches 10,000 times. FC Seoul have the best chance to be first before the split: >99%.
Race for first place
| Date | FC Seoul | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | Ulsan HD FC | Daejeon Hana Citizen | Gimcheon Sangmu | FC Anyang |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 March | 10% | 21% | 7% | 18% | 13% | 10% |
| 9 March | 12% | 16% | 7% | 13% | 15% | 13% |
| 16 March | 16% | 17% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 12% |
| 23 March | 34% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 6% | 3% |
| 30 March | 34% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | 3% |
| 6 April | 40% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| 13 April | 49% | 19% | 18% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 20 April | 44% | 23% | 21% | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| 27 April | 66% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| 4 May | 58% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| 11 May | 42% | 25% | 15% | 3% | <1% | 2% |
| 18 May | 54% | 22% | 9% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| 25 May | 53% | 23% | 9% | — | — | 1% |
| 1 June | 53% | 23% | 10% | 1% | <1% | 1% |
| 8 June | 52% | 23% | 9% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| 15 June | 53% | 23% | 9% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| 22 June | 52% | 24% | 9% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| 29 June | 53% | 23% | 8% | 1% | <1% | 2% |
| 6 July | 63% | 15% | 6% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| 13 July | 60% | 20% | 4% | <1% | — | 1% |
| 20 July | 71% | 10% | 3% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 27 July | 77% | 14% | 2% | <1% | — | 1% |
| 3 August | 81% | 12% | 4% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 10 August | 80% | 8% | 8% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 17 August | 92% | 2% | 3% | — | — | — |
| 24 August | 98% | 1% | 1% | — | — | — |
| 31 August | >99% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 7 September | >99% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
| 14 September | >99% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21 September | >99% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28 September | >99% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 October | >99% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 October | >99% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 October | >99% | — | — | — | — | — |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Top 6 | Play-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 65 (31) | 69 | 7 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Ulsan HD FC | 47 (31) | 50 | 10 | — | >99% | — |
| 3 | Gangwon FC | 46 (31) | 48 | 2 | — | 95%▲10 | — |
| 4 | Jeju SK | 46 (31) | 48 | 3 | — | 89%▼9 | — |
| 5 | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 44 (31) | 47 | 9 | — | 86%▼10 | — |
| 6 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 43 (31) | 47 | 12 | — | 86%▲26 | — |
| 7 | Incheon United | 42 (31) | 45 | 5 | — | 32%▲9 | — |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 41 (31) | 43 | 4 | — | 9%▲3 | — |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 40 (31) | 43 | 8 | — | 4%▼29 | — |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu | 33 (31) | 35 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 32 (31) | 35 | 11 | — | — | — |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 18 (31) | 20 | 6 | — | — | >99% |
Chance of every place
Show the 12 × 12 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 100 | |||||||||||
| Ulsan HD FC | 53 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 3 | |||||||
| Gangwon FC | 17 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 15 | 5 | ||||||
| Jeju SK | 14 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 11 | 1 | |||||
| Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 12 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 4 | |||||
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 3 | 14 | 20 | 26 | 22 | 9 | 5 | |||||
| Incheon United | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 27 | 4 | ||||
| FC Anyang | 3 | 6 | 15 | 32 | 44 | |||||||
| Pohang Steelers | 3 | 14 | 30 | 52 | ||||||||
| Gimcheon Sangmu | 62 | 38 | ||||||||||
| Bucheon FC 1995 | 38 | 62 | ||||||||||
| Gwangju FC | 100 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.