Chilean Liga de Primera, round 24 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Claro Arena
Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano
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In short
Universidad Católica are clear favourites: 63% against 17% for the opponent, draw 20%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Universidad Católica are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Universidad Católica — No. 3, 42 pts; Audax Italiano — No. 12, 28 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
- Universidad Católica: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Universidad Católica 2 wins, Audax Italiano 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano What is xG? | 2.1–1.0 | |
| Universidad Católica not to lose | 83% | |
| Audax Italiano not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Universidad Católica
- Universidad Católica goals
- Audax Italiano goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.09away · Palestino3:2
- 06.09away · Everton CD1:0
- 01.09O'Higgins3:2
- 27.08away · Coquimbo Unido2:1
- 23.08Ñublense1:2
- 14.09O'Higgins1:0
- 05.09away · Deportes Concepción1:0
- 31.08away · Colo Colo1:5
- 22.08Unión La Calera0:0
- 16.08away · Everton CD1:1
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Audax Italiano — Universidad Católica3:4
- 20.07.2025Audax Italiano — Universidad Católica1:1
- 18.02.2025Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano3:1
- 18.08.2024Audax Italiano — Universidad Católica2:1
- 18.03.2024Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | +22 | 45 |
| 3 | Universidad Católica | 23 | 13 | +17 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton CD | 24 | 11 | +13 | 39 |
| 11 | La Serena | 24 | 7 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | -10 | 27 |
Chilean Primera on the same day
- 5623211The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.0
- 2625492The most likely outcome did not happen: 25:2Final score 5:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 5925161The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →