Chilean Liga de Primera, round 24 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo
Deportes Concepción — Unión La Calera
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Deportes Concepción to win (59%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 59% fails in about 41 matches out of 100 on average.
Deportes Concepción are clear favourites: 59% against 16% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 34%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Deportes Concepción are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Deportes Concepción — Unión La Calera What is xG? | 1.4–0.6 | |
| Deportes Concepción not to lose | 84% | |
| Unión La Calera not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 34% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 66% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 32% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 68% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Deportes Concepción
- Deportes Concepción goals
- Unión La Calera goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 13.09away · Colo Colo1:1
- 05.09Audax Italiano0:1
- 30.08away · Ñublense1:0
- 23.08Coquimbo Unido1:1
- 16.08away · Cobresal2:0
- 15.09Deportes Limache1:0
- 06.09away · O'Higgins1:2
- 01.09La Serena0:1
- 22.08away · Audax Italiano0:0
- 16.08away · Ñublense1:2
Head to head
- 14.04.2026Unión La Calera — Deportes Concepción1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | +2 | 32 |
| 9 | Deportes Concepción | 24 | 9 | -1 | 32 |
| 10 | Ñublense | 24 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 15, Relegation | Universidad de Concepción | 24 | 6 | -22 | 23 |
| 16, Relegation | Unión La Calera | 24 | 4 | -21 | 18 |
Next matches
- La SerenaDeportes Concepción24 October · Chilean Primera · preliminary3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
- Unión La CaleraUniversidad Católica25 October · Chilean Primera · preliminary1924572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
Chilean Primera on the same day
- 6320171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- 5623211The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.0
- 2625492The most likely outcome did not happen: 25:2Final score 5:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →