J1 League (Japan), round 11 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Urawa Red Diamonds — JEF United Chiba
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Urawa Red Diamonds are clear favourites: 55% against 20% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Urawa Red Diamonds are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Urawa Red Diamonds — No. 11, 12 pts; JEF United Chiba — No. 19, 5 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: Urawa Red Diamonds 2 wins, JEF United Chiba 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Urawa Red Diamonds — JEF United Chiba What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Urawa Red Diamonds not to lose | 80% | |
| JEF United Chiba not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Urawa Red Diamonds
- Urawa Red Diamonds goals
- JEF United Chiba goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · FC Tokyo0:3
- 19.09Tokyo Verdy3:1
- 13.09Fagiano Okayama FC1:2
- 06.09away · Kashima Antlers1:0
- 02.09away · Avispa Fukuoka3:2
- 11.10V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 19.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
- 13.09away · Tokyo Verdy1:1
- 06.09Gamba Osaka2:0
- 02.09Fagiano Okayama FC1:2
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Urawa Red Diamonds — JEF United Chiba2:0
- 07.02.2026JEF United Chiba — Urawa Red Diamonds0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
J1 League on the same day
- Avispa FukuokaGamba Osakapreliminary4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- FC TokyoKashiwa Reysolpreliminary4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- Kawasaki FrontaleVissel Kobepreliminary3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Kyoto Sanga FCKashima Antlerspreliminary2626472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osakapreliminary3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Fagiano Okayama FCMito Hollyhockpreliminary5527191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Shimizu S-PulseMachida Zelviapreliminary2628462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- V-Varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →