Brazilian Serie A, round 33 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Vasco da Gama — Flamengo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Flamengo are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Flamengo are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Vasco da Gama — No. 14, 35 pts; Flamengo — No. 1, 64 pts. A gap of 29 pts.
- Vasco da Gama: unbeaten in 5; Flamengo: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Vasco da Gama 0 wins, Flamengo 1, 4 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vasco da Gama — Flamengo What is xG? | 1.2–1.5 | |
| Vasco da Gama not to lose | 55% | |
| Flamengo not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama goals
- Flamengo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Boca Juniors1:0
- 11.10Remo0:0
- 08.10away · Botafogo2:1
- 20.09Coritiba5:0
- 16.09Santa Fe2:0
- 11.10Fluminense1:0
- 09.10away · Santos2:2
- 21.09RB Bragantino2:1
- 18.09Independiente del Valle1:1
- 13.09Corinthians2:1
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Flamengo — Vasco da Gama2:2
- 21.09.2025Flamengo — Vasco da Gama1:1
- 20.04.2025Vasco da Gama — Flamengo0:0
- 16.09.2024Flamengo — Vasco da Gama1:1
- 02.06.2024Vasco da Gama — Flamengo1:6
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Copa Libertadores | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | +33 | 64 |
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- Atlético-MGCruzeiropreliminary4329291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- CoritibaVitóriapreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- GrêmioAthletico Paranaensepreliminary3428372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →