Brazilian Serie A, round 33 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Atlético-MG — Cruzeiro
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlético-MG are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético-MG — Cruzeiro What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Atlético-MG not to lose | 71% | |
| Cruzeiro not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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- Handicap Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG goals
- Cruzeiro goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10Santos2:1
- 09.10away · Athletico Paranaense2:2
- 04.10RB Bragantino1:0
- 19.09Chapecoense1:1
- 17.09Santos4:2
- 13.10away · RB Bragantino2:4
- 08.10São Paulo2:0
- 20.09away · Vitória3:1
- 13.09away · Santos1:2
- 06.09Athletico Paranaense3:1
Head to head
- 02.09.2026Atlético-MG — Cruzeiro2:1
- 26.08.2026Cruzeiro — Atlético-MG1:1
- 03.05.2026Cruzeiro — Atlético-MG1:3
- 16.10.2025Atlético-MG — Cruzeiro1:1
- 12.09.2025Cruzeiro — Atlético-MG2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- CoritibaVitóriapreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Vasco da GamaFlamengopreliminary2728452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- GrêmioAthletico Paranaensepreliminary3428372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →