Brazilian Serie A, round 33 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Grêmio — Athletico Paranaense
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Grêmio 34%, Athletico Paranaense 37%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Grêmio — Athletico Paranaense What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Grêmio not to lose | 63% | |
| Athletico Paranaense not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Handicap Grêmio
- Grêmio goals
- Athletico Paranaense goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10Internacional1:1
- 08.10away · Remo1:1
- 20.09Palmeiras0:0
- 17.09away · Botafogo2:3
- 12.09Vasco da Gama1:2
- 13.10away · Chapecoense4:1
- 09.10Atlético-MG2:2
- 21.09Bahia2:1
- 12.09away · Coritiba3:3
- 06.09away · Cruzeiro1:3
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Athletico Paranaense — Grêmio0:0
- 04.08.2024Athletico Paranaense — Grêmio0:2
- 18.04.2024Grêmio — Athletico Paranaense2:0
- 19.10.2023Grêmio — Athletico Paranaense1:2
- 27.05.2023Athletico Paranaense — Grêmio1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 17, Relegation | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 18, Relegation | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | -8 | 31 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- Atlético-MGCruzeiropreliminary4329291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- CoritibaVitóriapreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Vasco da GamaFlamengopreliminary2728452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →