UEFA Nations League, round 4, League A, group 4 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Cardiff City Stadium
Wales — Denmark
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Denmark to win (53%), came true.
Denmark are clear favourites: 53% against 20% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Wales 1698, Denmark 1844 — Denmark clearly rated higher.
- Wales: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wales — Denmark What is xG? | 0.9–1.7 | |
| Wales not to lose | 47% | |
| Denmark not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Wales
- Wales goals
- Denmark goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 01.10Portugal2:4
- 27.09Wales2:0
- 24.09away · Norway2:3
- 03.06away · DR Congo0:0
- 31.03away · Czechia2:2
Head to head
- 27.09.2026Denmark — Wales2:0
- 26.06.2021Wales — Denmark0:4
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 4230281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 2326512The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 5829131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 2425512The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 7218101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 5722201The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 3929321The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →