Kazakhstan Premier League, round 29 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Zhetysu Taldykorgan — Tobol Kostanay
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tobol Kostanay are clear favourites: 48% against 25% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tobol Kostanay are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Zhetysu Taldykorgan — No. 16, 22 pts; Tobol Kostanay — No. 7, 37 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
- Zhetysu Taldykorgan: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Zhetysu Taldykorgan 0 wins, Tobol Kostanay 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Zhetysu Taldykorgan — Tobol Kostanay What is xG? | 1.1–1.5 | |
| Zhetysu Taldykorgan not to lose | 52% | |
| Tobol Kostanay not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Zhetysu Taldykorgan
- Zhetysu Taldykorgan goals
- Tobol Kostanay goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Kairat Almaty0:1
- 18.09Kaspiy Aktau0:1
- 12.09away · FC Yelimay1:2
- 05.09Irtysh Pavlodar1:0
- 29.08away · Ulytau0:3
- 10.10FC Astana2:1
- 17.09FC Yelimay0:2
- 13.09away · Kairat Almaty4:1
- 06.09Ulytau3:1
- 30.08away · Kaspiy Aktau0:1
Head to head
- 16.03.2026Tobol Kostanay — Zhetysu Taldykorgan2:2
- 19.10.2025Zhetysu Taldykorgan — Tobol Kostanay1:2
- 21.06.2025Tobol Kostanay — Zhetysu Taldykorgan2:1
- 18.08.2024Zhetysu Taldykorgan — Tobol Kostanay0:3
- 04.05.2024Tobol Kostanay — Zhetysu Taldykorgan1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Yelimay | 26 | 10 | 0 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 27 | 11 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 27 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | FC Altai Oskemen | 27 | 5 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 27 | 5 | -19 | 22 |
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- Okzhetpes KokshetauKaspiy Aktaupreliminary5525211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- FC Kyzylzhar PetropavlovskUlytaupreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Ordabasy ShymkentZhenispreliminary771571The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →