AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Belleville Senators — Toronto Marlies
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Toronto Marlies are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 58%.
Why
- Toronto Marlies are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.7.
Facts
- League table: Belleville Senators — No. 22, 4 pts; Toronto Marlies — No. 7, 6 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Toronto Marlies: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Belleville Senators 2 wins, Toronto Marlies 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Belleville Senators — Toronto Marlies | 2.7–3.1 | |
| Belleville Senators to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Toronto Marlies to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 58% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Belleville Senators
- Belleville Senators goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10Utica Comets2:4
- 11.10away · Syracuse Crunch3:2
- 04.10Rochester Americans3:2 SO
- 03.10Hamilton Hammers2:5
- 19.04away · Syracuse Crunch0:4
- 11.10away · Hamilton Hammers5:2
- 10.10away · Hamilton Hammers5:4 SO
- 03.10Hamilton Hammers5:3
- 03.10away · Rochester Americans1:3
- 20.06Chicago Wolves4:3
Head to head
- 11.01.2026Belleville Senators — Toronto Marlies6:3
- 10.01.2026Toronto Marlies — Belleville Senators6:1
- 26.12.2025Toronto Marlies — Belleville Senators3:2
- 21.12.2025Belleville Senators — Toronto Marlies8:4
- 21.12.2025Toronto Marlies — Belleville Senators4:3 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Colorado Eagles | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 7 | Toronto Marlies | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 8 | Hershey Bears | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 21 | Charlotte Checkers | 4 | 2 | -1 | 4 | .500 |
| 22 | Belleville Senators | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 | .500 |
| 23 | Hamilton Hammers | 4 | 1 | -3 | 3 | .375 |
AHL on the same day
- Ontario ReignTucson Roadrunnerspreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.4
- Chicago WolvesTexas Starspreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.8
- San Diego GullsHenderson Silver Knightspreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.9
- Utica CometsHamilton Hammerspreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:26.0
- Lehigh Valley PhantomsProvidence Bruinspreliminary40602The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.3
- Springfield ThunderbirdsHartford Wolf Packpreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →