NHL · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames — Colorado Avalanche
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:7Came true
In short
Final score 3:7: the model's most likely outcome, Colorado Avalanche to win (64% incl. overtime), came true.
Colorado Avalanche are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.4 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.
Why
- Colorado Avalanche are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.4.
- Colorado Avalanche: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Calgary Flames — Colorado Avalanche | 2.4–3.1 | |
| Calgary Flames to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 36% | |
| Colorado Avalanche to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 64% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 53% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 47% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Calgary Flames
- Calgary Flames goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 05.10away · Seattle Kraken1:6
- 04.10away · Vancouver Canucks1:4
- 02.10Seattle Kraken1:6
- 17.04Los Angeles Kings3:1
- 15.04Colorado Avalanche1:3
- 08.10away · Winnipeg Jets2:3
- 04.10St. Louis Blues6:1
- 01.10Los Angeles Kings8:4
- 27.05away · Vegas Golden Knights1:2
- 25.05away · Vegas Golden Knights3:5
Head to head
- 15.04.2026Calgary Flames — Colorado Avalanche1:3
- 10.04.2026Colorado Avalanche — Calgary Flames3:1
- 31.03.2026Colorado Avalanche — Calgary Flames9:2
- 01.04.2025Colorado Avalanche — Calgary Flames2:3 SO
- 15.03.2025Calgary Flames — Colorado Avalanche2:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 5 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Colorado Avalanche | 5 | 3 | +9 | 6 |
| 16, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Washington Capitals | 5 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 31 | Philadelphia Flyers | 7 | 0 | -20 | 2 |
| 32 | Calgary Flames | 5 | 0 | -19 | 0 |
Next matches
- Colorado AvalancheToronto Maple Leafs11 October · NHL71291The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%3:6Final score 3:6. Model's score: 5:2.6.0
- Calgary FlamesAnaheim Ducks11 October · NHL55451The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%2:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 5:2.6.0
NHL on the same day
- 47532The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
- 50501The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%0:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 71291The most likely outcome came true: 120%7:2Final score 7:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.9
- 56441The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.1
- 54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
- 60401The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →