NHL · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames — Anaheim Ducks
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2:4Missed
In short
Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Calgary Flames to win (55% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.
Calgary Flames are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 62%.
Why
- Calgary Flames are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.9.
- Anaheim Ducks: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Calgary Flames — Anaheim Ducks | 3.2–2.9 | |
| Calgary Flames to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Anaheim Ducks to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 62% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 38% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Calgary Flames
- Calgary Flames goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Colorado Avalanche3:7
- 05.10away · Seattle Kraken1:6
- 04.10away · Vancouver Canucks1:4
- 02.10Seattle Kraken1:6
- 17.04Los Angeles Kings3:1
- 10.10away · Winnipeg Jets5:1
- 08.10Edmonton Oilers2:5
- 05.10Florida Panthers3:2 OT
- 03.10away · Vegas Golden Knights4:3
- 15.05Vegas Golden Knights1:5
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Anaheim Ducks — Calgary Flames3:5
- 27.03.2026Calgary Flames — Anaheim Ducks2:3 OT
- 02.03.2026Anaheim Ducks — Calgary Flames3:2 SO
- 26.01.2026Calgary Flames — Anaheim Ducks3:4 OT
- 10.04.2025Anaheim Ducks — Calgary Flames4:3 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Boston Bruins | 6 | 4 | +7 | 8 |
| 10, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 5 | 4 | +5 | 8 |
| 11, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 31 | Philadelphia Flyers | 7 | 0 | -20 | 2 |
| 32 | Calgary Flames | 5 | 0 | -19 | 0 |
Next match
- Anaheim DucksCalgary Flames14 October · NHL59411The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
NHL on the same day
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 50502The most likely outcome came true: 223%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
- 29712The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.4
- 71291The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%3:6Final score 3:6. Model's score: 5:2.6.0
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%1:0SOFinal score 1:0 in a shootout. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2SOFinal score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 41592The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%2:1SOFinal score 2:1 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →