AHL (American Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors
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In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Bakersfield Condors to win (57% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Bakersfield Condors are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 63%.
Why
- Bakersfield Condors are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 2.9.
Facts
- Calgary Wranglers: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Calgary Wranglers 1 win, Bakersfield Condors 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors | 2.9–3.3 | |
| Calgary Wranglers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Bakersfield Condors to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 63% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 37% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Calgary Wranglers
- Calgary Wranglers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Form
- 04.10Abbotsford Canucks4:2
- 03.10Abbotsford Canucks4:2
- 19.04away · Colorado Eagles7:5
- 18.04away · Colorado Eagles5:2
- 12.04Abbotsford Canucks0:4
- 05.10away · Henderson Silver Knights3:1
- 04.10away · Henderson Silver Knights3:4
- 27.04away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 26.04away · Coachella Valley Firebirds4:5
- 24.04Coachella Valley Firebirds6:1
Head to head
- 22.03.2026Bakersfield Condors — Calgary Wranglers1:0
- 21.02.2026Bakersfield Condors — Calgary Wranglers4:5 OT
- 04.02.2026Bakersfield Condors — Calgary Wranglers3:2 OT
- 18.01.2026Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors0:1 OT
- 17.01.2026Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors1:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Laval Rocket | 4 | 3 | +9 | 6 | .750 |
| 5 | Calgary Wranglers | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 6 | Colorado Eagles | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 19 | Tucson Roadrunners | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 | .500 |
| 20 | Bakersfield Condors | 4 | 2 | +1 | 4 | .500 |
| 21 | Charlotte Checkers | 4 | 2 | -1 | 4 | .500 |
Next match
- Calgary WranglersBakersfield Condors11 October · AHL44562The most likely outcome came true: 221%4:5Final score 4:5. Model's score: 2:4.6.0
AHL on the same day
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.2
- 50501The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%4:5SOFinal score 4:5 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.6.1
- 66341The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
- 45552The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%7:1Final score 7:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.3
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:3SOFinal score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
- 61391The most likely outcome came true: 120%6:3Final score 6:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.9
- 56441The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%4:7Final score 4:7. Model's score: 4:2.6.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →