VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Izhevsk — Kurgan
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Izhevsk 51%, Kurgan 49% including overtime.
4.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 33%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.2.
Facts
- League table: Izhevsk — No. 28, 8 pts; Kurgan — No. 26, 10 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Izhevsk: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Izhevsk 2 wins, Kurgan 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Izhevsk — Kurgan | 2.3–2.2 | |
| Izhevsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Kurgan to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 33% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 67% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Izhevsk
- Izhevsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:3 SO
- 11.10away · Krasnoyarsk2:3
- 08.10away · HC Norilsk2:3
- 03.10Kaluga1:3
- 01.10AKM4:3 OT
Head to head
- 26.12.2025Izhevsk — Kurgan2:1
- 23.11.2025Kurgan — Izhevsk3:4
- 04.03.2025Izhevsk — Kurgan1:2
- 18.09.2024Kurgan — Izhevsk9:0
- 14.02.2024Izhevsk — Kurgan1:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Zvezda Moscow | 14 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 26 | Kurgan | 12 | 3 | -14 | 10 |
| 27 | CSK VVS | 16 | 4 | -25 | 9 |
| 28 | Izhevsk | 13 | 3 | -11 | 8 |
| 29 | Krasnoyarsk | 14 | 4 | -13 | 8 |
VHL on the same day
- Toros NeftekamskOmskie Kryliapreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5
- KhimikKalugapreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:13.8
- OlympiaRubin Tyumenpreliminary38622The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.1
- Zvezda MoscowAKMpreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
- Dinamo St. PetersburgRyazanpreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →