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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 23 October, MSK

Kiekko-Espoo — IFK Helsinki

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Model prediction for 23 October

Kiekko-Espoo50%
Draw in regulation22%
IFK Helsinki29%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kiekko-Espoo are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • Kiekko-Espoo are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Kiekko-Espoo — No. 6, 20 pts; IFK Helsinki — No. 14, 13 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Kiekko-Espoo 5 wins, IFK Helsinki 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kiekko-Espoo — IFK Helsinki2.8–2.2
Kiekko-Espoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kiekko-Espoo
  • Kiekko-Espoo goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kiekko-Espoo

  • 09.10JYP6:1
  • 07.10away · Karpat7:8 OT
  • 03.10away · Ilves4:6
  • 02.10Karpat1:3
  • 30.09TPS Turku4:2

IFK Helsinki

  • 10.10KalPa6:1
  • 08.10away · Jokerit2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · Vaasan Sport3:2 OT
  • 26.09away · Pelicans1:2
  • 25.09JYP3:4

Head to head

  • 21.02.2026Kiekko-Espoo — IFK Helsinki4:0
  • 17.01.2026IFK Helsinki — Kiekko-Espoo2:3
  • 24.10.2025Kiekko-Espoo — IFK Helsinki1:0
  • 12.09.2025IFK Helsinki — Kiekko-Espoo2:4
  • 01.03.2025Kiekko-Espoo — IFK Helsinki4:3

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo13513442–32+1020
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213
14, Relegation play-offIFK Helsinki11312531–34-313
15, Relegation play-offVaasan Sport11312520–31-1113

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • JukuritIlvespreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • KarpatKalPapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • LukkoTPS Turkupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • Vaasan SportSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →