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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 23 October, MSK

Karpat — KalPa

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Model prediction for 23 October

Karpat42%
Draw in regulation22%
KalPa36%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Karpat 53%, KalPa 47% including overtime.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.6.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karpat — KalPa2.8–2.6
Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)51%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Karpat
  • Karpat goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Karpat

  • 10.10away · Jukurit1:2 OT
  • 09.10away · Pelicans3:2 OT
  • 07.10Kiekko-Espoo8:7 OT
  • 03.10away · Hameenlinna1:2 OT
  • 02.10away · Kiekko-Espoo3:1

KalPa

  • 10.10away · IFK Helsinki1:6
  • 09.10Tappara2:3
  • 03.10away · Jukurit1:2 OT
  • 02.10SaiPa4:3
  • 26.09Lukko1:2

Head to head

  • 14.02.2026Karpat — KalPa3:1
  • 13.02.2026Karpat — KalPa2:5
  • 25.10.2025KalPa — Karpat3:1
  • 24.10.2025KalPa — Karpat6:4
  • 22.02.2025KalPa — Karpat7:5

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarpat13523335–34+122
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213
14, Relegation play-offIFK Helsinki11312531–34-313

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • JukuritIlvespreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • LukkoTPS Turkupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • Vaasan SportSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • Kiekko-EspooIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →