Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Lukko — TPS Turku
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lukko are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.
Why
- Lukko are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lukko — TPS Turku | 2.8–2.1 | |
| Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 64% | |
| TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 36% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 41% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Lukko
- Lukko goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Tappara3:4 SO
- 03.10JYP4:1
- 30.09away · Kiekko-Espoo2:4
- 27.09away · Ilves2:3
- 25.09away · Jokerit2:1
Head to head
- 04.03.2026TPS Turku — Lukko3:4 SO
- 06.02.2026Lukko — TPS Turku3:2
- 05.12.2025Lukko — TPS Turku4:2
- 13.09.2025TPS Turku — Lukko3:0
- 14.03.2025TPS Turku — Lukko1:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | SaiPa | 11 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lukko | 11 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Tappara | 11 | 5 | +8 | 19 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | -7 | 18 |
| 11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | TPS Turku | 11 | 5 | +4 | 16 |
| 12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Pelicans | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
Liiga on the same day
- JukuritIlvespreliminary38622The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.6
- KarpatKalPapreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
- Vaasan SportSaiPapreliminary36642The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
- Kiekko-EspooIFK Helsinkipreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →