NHL · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:1Missed
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Tampa Bay Lightning to win (54% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.
Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.8.
Facts
- Tampa Bay Lightning: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: New York Rangers 4 wins, Tampa Bay Lightning 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning | 2.6–2.8 | |
| New York Rangers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 53% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap New York Rangers
- New York Rangers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10Vancouver Canucks6:2
- 10.10away · Washington Capitals1:3
- 07.10New York Islanders5:2
- 05.10Utah Mammoth4:2
- 03.10away · Detroit Red Wings2:0
- 11.10away · New York Islanders5:3
- 09.10Minnesota Wild3:2
- 06.10Philadelphia Flyers4:1
- 04.10Washington Capitals3:1
- 02.10away · New York Rangers1:5
Head to head
- 02.10.2026New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning5:1
- 16.04.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — New York Rangers2:4
- 29.11.2025New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning1:4
- 13.11.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — New York Rangers3:7
- 18.04.2025New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Carolina Hurricanes | 8 | 6 | +12 | 13 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New York Rangers | 8 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Vegas Golden Knights | 8 | 6 | +10 | 12 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
Next matches
- New Jersey DevilsNew York Rangers16 October · NHL47532The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.2
- Tampa Bay LightningSeattle Kraken16 October · NHL63371The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.4
NHL on the same day
- 59411The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 58421The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%3:7Final score 3:7. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 56441The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3SOFinal score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 59411The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.6
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%2:3SOFinal score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
- 48522The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:7Final score 2:7. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 122%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.6
- 37632The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →