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KHL · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Neftekhimik Arena

Niznekamsk — Barys Astana

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Model prediction and result

4:5 OTMissed
Niznekamsk52%
Draw in regulation21%
Barys Astana27%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:5 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Niznekamsk to win (64% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 64% fails in about 36 matches out of 100 on average.

Niznekamsk are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

  • Niznekamsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • Barys Astana: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Niznekamsk 5 wins, Barys Astana 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Niznekamsk — Barys Astana2.8–2.1
Niznekamsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)64%
Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)36%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Niznekamsk
  • Niznekamsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Niznekamsk

  • 29.09away · Khabarovsk0:1
  • 27.09away · Vladivostok5:3
  • 26.09away · Barys Astana6:3
  • 23.09Lada7:3
  • 20.09away · Magnitogorsk2:6

Barys Astana

  • 30.09away · Bars Kazan1:4
  • 27.09SKA St. Petersburg3:5
  • 26.09Niznekamsk3:6
  • 22.09away · Dynamo Moscow4:1
  • 20.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl5:0

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026Barys Astana — Niznekamsk3:6
  • 24.01.2026Niznekamsk — Barys Astana3:2
  • 15.01.2026Barys Astana — Niznekamsk0:1
  • 03.11.2025Barys Astana — Niznekamsk2:5
  • 27.10.2025Niznekamsk — Barys Astana3:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNizhny Novgorod1491440–25+1519
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNiznekamsk1582547–38+918
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceShanghai1281336–29+717
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1480654–40+1416
13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSpartak Moscow1472536–28+816

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • NiznekamskNovosibirsk4 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • Spartak MoscowBarys Astana4 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 3:4 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.6

KHL on the same day

  • Avangard OmskLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 117%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
  • Salavat UfaNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • YekaterinburgKhabarovsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • Bars KazanTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Spartak MoscowMagnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →