Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Sunday, 18 October, MSK

Olomouc — Pardubice

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Model prediction for 18 October

Olomouc22%
Draw in regulation20%
Pardubice58%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Pardubice are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Pardubice are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Olomouc — Pardubice2.0–3.1
Olomouc to win (incl. OT and shootout)29%
Pardubice to win (incl. OT and shootout)71%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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  • Olomouc goals
  • Overtime chance
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Form

Olomouc

  • 11.10away · Mountfield HK1:3
  • 09.10away · Litvinov1:3
  • 04.10Trinec0:9
  • 02.10away · Liberec0:2
  • 29.09Vitkovice3:4

Pardubice

  • 11.10Trinec5:4 OT
  • 09.10away · Vitkovice3:2
  • 04.10Sparta Prague6:4
  • 02.10Plzen4:2
  • 29.09Ceske Budejovice5:2

Head to head

  • 23.01.2026Olomouc — Pardubice2:3
  • 17.12.2025Pardubice — Olomouc4:5 OT
  • 26.10.2025Olomouc — Pardubice2:1 OT
  • 19.09.2025Pardubice — Olomouc3:1
  • 29.01.2025Pardubice — Olomouc1:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsTrinec10901049–23+2628
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618
13Vitkovice9201621–32-117
14, Relegation play-offOlomouc10110818–36-185

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →