NHL · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators — Philadelphia Flyers
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Ottawa Senators to win (63% incl. overtime), came true.
Ottawa Senators are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.1 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.
Why
- Ottawa Senators are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.2.
Facts
- Philadelphia Flyers: 5 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Ottawa Senators 5 wins, Philadelphia Flyers 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ottawa Senators — Philadelphia Flyers | 2.9–2.2 | |
| Ottawa Senators to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 63% | |
| Philadelphia Flyers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 37% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 46% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 07.10away · Detroit Red Wings3:5
- 06.10away · Boston Bruins4:1
- 04.10away · Toronto Maple Leafs3:2
- 25.04Carolina Hurricanes2:4
- 24.04Carolina Hurricanes1:2
- 06.10away · Tampa Bay Lightning1:4
- 04.10Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
- 02.10away · New Jersey Devils2:3 OT
- 01.10Pittsburgh Penguins0:7
- 10.05Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
Head to head
- 06.02.2026Philadelphia Flyers — Ottawa Senators1:2 OT
- 08.11.2025Philadelphia Flyers — Ottawa Senators2:3 OT
- 24.10.2025Ottawa Senators — Philadelphia Flyers2:1
- 13.04.2025Ottawa Senators — Philadelphia Flyers4:3 OT
- 12.03.2025Philadelphia Flyers — Ottawa Senators2:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Utah Mammoth | 7 | 5 | +8 | 10 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Ottawa Senators | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Minnesota Wild | 7 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 29 | Chicago Blackhawks | 7 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
| 30 | Philadelphia Flyers | 8 | 0 | -21 | 3 |
| 31 | Los Angeles Kings | 5 | 0 | -10 | 2 |
Next matches
- Boston BruinsPhiladelphia Flyers10 October · NHL54461The most likely outcome came true: 124%5:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
- Ottawa SenatorsNashville Predators11 October · NHL63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2SOFinal score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
NHL on the same day
- 47532The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
- 50501The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%0:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 71291The most likely outcome came true: 120%7:2Final score 7:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.9
- 56441The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
- 54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
- 60401The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 36642The most likely outcome came true: 223%3:7Final score 3:7. Model's score: 1:4.5.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →