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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK

Rubin Tyumen — Buran Voronezh

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Model prediction and result

4:3 SOCame true
Rubin Tyumen51%
Draw in regulation23%
Buran Voronezh27%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Rubin Tyumen to win (64% incl. overtime), came true.

Rubin Tyumen are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.

Why

  • Rubin Tyumen are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

  • Buran Voronezh: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Rubin Tyumen 3 wins, Buran Voronezh 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rubin Tyumen — Buran Voronezh2.5–1.8
Rubin Tyumen to win (incl. OT and shootout)64%
Buran Voronezh to win (incl. OT and shootout)36%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)30%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)70%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Rubin Tyumen
  • Rubin Tyumen goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Rubin Tyumen

  • 03.10away · Omskie Krylia3:4
  • 01.10away · Kurgan3:2 SO
  • 27.09HC Yugra4:3
  • 23.09away · Dyn. Altay1:4
  • 21.09away · Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:2 SO

Buran Voronezh

  • 09.10away · Kurgan3:2 SO
  • 07.10away · Omskie Krylia1:0
  • 01.10Dyn. Altay4:2
  • 29.09Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:1 SO
  • 27.09Krasnoyarsk4:3

Head to head

  • 10.02.2026Rubin Tyumen — Buran Voronezh1:2 SO
  • 11.10.2025Buran Voronezh — Rubin Tyumen1:2
  • 13.12.2024Buran Voronezh — Rubin Tyumen1:3
  • 03.12.2024Rubin Tyumen — Buran Voronezh2:3 OT
  • 15.01.2024Buran Voronezh — Rubin Tyumen2:7

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsAlmetyevsk16120446–31+1524
2, PlayoffsBuran Voronezh14102231–22+922
3, PlayoffsAKM1593347–34+1321
18Toros Neftekamsk1362530–31-114
19Rubin Tyumen1270529–32-314
20Dinamo St. Petersburg1461739–46-713

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Rubin TyumenTambov13 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.5
  • HC YugraBuran Voronezh13 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 0:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.1

VHL on the same day

  • KrasnoyarskIzhevsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.5
  • Metallurg NovokuznetskOlympia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 116%Final score 2:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
  • Omskie KryliaDizel
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • KurganTambov
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →