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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Monday, 12 October, MSK

Ryazan — Chelmet Chelyabinsk

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Model prediction and result

8:0Came true
Ryazan41%
Draw in regulation23%
Chelmet Chelyabinsk37%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 8:0: the model's most likely outcome, Ryazan to win (52% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Ryazan 52%, Chelmet Chelyabinsk 48% including overtime.

4.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 38%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.3.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Ryazan 3 wins, Chelmet Chelyabinsk 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ryazan — Chelmet Chelyabinsk2.4–2.3
Ryazan to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Chelmet Chelyabinsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)38%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)62%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Ryazan
  • Ryazan goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Ryazan

  • 10.10Magnitka Magnitogorsk4:3 SO
  • 08.10Orsk2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · Perm0:1
  • 01.10away · Toros Neftekamsk0:3
  • 29.09away · Izhevsk2:3 SO

Chelmet Chelyabinsk

  • 04.10Bars3:4
  • 02.10Almetyevsk4:2
  • 30.09CSK VVS4:5 OT
  • 24.09away · Khimik0:6
  • 22.09away · Zvezda Moscow2:1

Head to head

  • 28.02.2026Chelmet Chelyabinsk — Ryazan1:2
  • 18.09.2025Ryazan — Chelmet Chelyabinsk3:1
  • 09.01.2025Ryazan — Chelmet Chelyabinsk1:3
  • 06.11.2024Chelmet Chelyabinsk — Ryazan0:1
  • 16.01.2024Chelmet Chelyabinsk — Ryazan1:0 SO

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
17Toros Neftekamsk1362530–31-114
18Ryazan1554630–32-214
19Rubin Tyumen1270529–32-314
29Krasnoyarsk14401023–36-138
30Chelmet Chelyabinsk1132620–44-248

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • RyazanGornyak14 October · VHL · live
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.6
  • AKMChelmet Chelyabinsk14 October · VHL · live
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3

VHL on the same day

  • HC NorilskPerm
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • CSK VVSSKA-VMF St. Petersburg
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 0:5. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • AlmetyevskDinamo St. Petersburg
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
  • BarsZvezda Moscow
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.4
  • AKMMagnitka Magnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • KalugaOrsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 125%Final score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:1.3.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →