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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Monday, 12 October, MSK

HC Norilsk — Perm

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Model prediction and result

3:1Missed
HC Norilsk34%
Draw in regulation23%
Perm43%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Perm to win (55% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.

Perm are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 34%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.1 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: HC Norilsk — Perm2.1–2.4
HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)45%
Perm to win (incl. OT and shootout)55%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)34%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)66%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap HC Norilsk
  • HC Norilsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

HC Norilsk

  • 10.10Toros Neftekamsk5:3
  • 08.10Izhevsk3:2
  • 06.10Olympia3:2
  • 01.10away · Kristall Saratov3:2 SO
  • 29.09away · Dizel0:5

Perm

  • 07.10Kaluga1:3
  • 05.10AKM3:0
  • 03.10Ryazan1:0
  • 25.09away · Bars4:0
  • 23.09away · Almetyevsk1:2

Head to head

  • 26.01.2026Perm — HC Norilsk6:3
  • 25.10.2025HC Norilsk — Perm4:1
  • 14.01.2025Perm — HC Norilsk3:2 SO
  • 07.11.2024HC Norilsk — Perm3:5
  • 06.02.2024HC Norilsk — Perm2:1 OT

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
4, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
5, PlayoffsOrsk1283135–22+1319
10, PlayoffsSKA-VMF St. Petersburg1280432–21+1116
11, PlayoffsPerm1280430–23+716
12, PlayoffsTambov1372434–34016

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • KrasnoyarskPerm15 October · VHL
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • OrskHC Norilsk19 October · VHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.2

VHL on the same day

  • CSK VVSSKA-VMF St. Petersburg
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 0:5. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • AlmetyevskDinamo St. Petersburg
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
  • BarsZvezda Moscow
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.4
  • AKMMagnitka Magnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • KalugaOrsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 125%Final score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
  • RyazanChelmet Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 8:0. Model's score: 3:1.4.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →