KHL · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Ufa-Arena
Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk
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2:4Missed
In short
Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Salavat Ufa to win (66% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 66% fails in about 34 matches out of 100 on average.
Salavat Ufa are clear favourites: 66% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.
Why
- Salavat Ufa are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.0.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Salavat Ufa 4 wins, Novosibirsk 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk | 2.8–2.0 | |
| Salavat Ufa to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 66% | |
| Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 34% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 39% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Salavat Ufa
- Salavat Ufa goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10Niznekamsk4:3
- 09.10away · Magnitogorsk1:7
- 07.10away · Novosibirsk5:4 OT
- 05.10away · CSKA Moscow1:3
- 02.10Novosibirsk2:4
- 12.10away · Barys Astana3:2
- 10.10away · Tractor Chelyabinsk2:1
- 07.10Salavat Ufa4:5 OT
- 04.10away · Niznekamsk2:3
- 02.10away · Salavat Ufa4:2
Head to head
- 07.10.2026Novosibirsk — Salavat Ufa4:5 OT
- 02.10.2026Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk2:4
- 24.02.2026Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk3:2 OT
- 23.10.2025Novosibirsk — Salavat Ufa2:5
- 01.10.2025Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk5:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Khabarovsk | 15 | 8 | +2 | 17 |
| 11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Salavat Ufa | 16 | 8 | -3 | 17 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Dinamo Minsk | 15 | 6 | -6 | 17 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Bars Kazan | 15 | 7 | -1 | 15 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Novosibirsk | 16 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 16, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Yekaterinburg | 13 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
Next matches
- KhabarovskSalavat Ufa17 October · KHL44562The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- NovosibirskBarys Astana17 October · KHL51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
KHL on the same day
- 43572The most likely outcome came true: 223%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:3.4.7
- 45552The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:44.9
- 52481The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3
- 60401The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.2
- 41592The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →