NHL · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning — Minnesota Wild
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:2Came true
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Tampa Bay Lightning to win (54% incl. overtime), came true.
Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 2.7.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Tampa Bay Lightning 2 wins, Minnesota Wild 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning — Minnesota Wild | 2.9–2.6 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| Minnesota Wild to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 54% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 46% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tampa Bay Lightning goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 06.10Philadelphia Flyers4:1
- 04.10Washington Capitals3:1
- 02.10away · New York Rangers1:5
- 04.05Montreal Canadiens1:2
- 02.05away · Montreal Canadiens1:0 OT
- 07.10away · Buffalo Sabres2:3 OT
- 04.10Boston Bruins4:1
- 02.10away · Nashville Predators3:1
- 14.05away · Colorado Avalanche3:4 OT
- 12.05Colorado Avalanche2:5
Head to head
- 25.03.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Minnesota Wild6:3
- 04.03.2026Minnesota Wild — Tampa Bay Lightning5:1
- 02.11.2024Minnesota Wild — Tampa Bay Lightning5:3
- 25.10.2024Tampa Bay Lightning — Minnesota Wild2:4
- 19.01.2024Tampa Bay Lightning — Minnesota Wild7:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Ottawa Senators | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Minnesota Wild | 7 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 10, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 6 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
Next matches
- Florida PanthersMinnesota Wild11 October · NHL51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- New York IslandersTampa Bay Lightning11 October · NHL47532The most likely outcome came true: 224%3:5Final score 3:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
NHL on the same day
- 47532The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
- 50501The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%0:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 71291The most likely outcome came true: 120%7:2Final score 7:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.9
- 56441The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.1
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
- 60401The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 36642The most likely outcome came true: 223%3:7Final score 3:7. Model's score: 1:4.5.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →