NHL · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs — Ottawa Senators
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:3Came true
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Ottawa Senators to win (56% incl. overtime), came true.
Ottawa Senators are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 60%.
Why
- Ottawa Senators are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — Ottawa Senators | 2.8–3.2 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 44% | |
| Ottawa Senators to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 56% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 60% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 01.10New York Islanders2:1
- 30.09Montreal Canadiens2:3
- 16.04away · Ottawa Senators1:3
- 14.04Dallas Stars5:6
- 12.04Florida Panthers2:6
- 25.04Carolina Hurricanes2:4
- 24.04Carolina Hurricanes1:2
- 21.04away · Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
- 18.04away · Carolina Hurricanes0:2
- 16.04Toronto Maple Leafs3:1
Head to head
- 16.04.2026Ottawa Senators — Toronto Maple Leafs3:1
- 22.03.2026Ottawa Senators — Toronto Maple Leafs5:2
- 01.03.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — Ottawa Senators2:5
- 28.12.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Ottawa Senators7:5
- 02.05.2025Ottawa Senators — Toronto Maple Leafs2:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Vegas Golden Knights | 7 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Ottawa Senators | 6 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Edmonton Oilers | 5 | 4 | +8 | 9 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 5 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
Next matches
- Boston BruinsOttawa Senators6 October · NHL45552The most likely outcome came true: 224%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:4, exactly right.5.3
- Toronto Maple LeafsNashville Predators7 October · NHL53471The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:4OTFinal score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.5.6
NHL on the same day
- 73271The most likely outcome came true: 119%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 49512The most likely outcome came true: 222%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:3.5.9
- 60401The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 48522The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.6
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 122%6:5OTFinal score 6:5 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%6:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 5:2.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →