NHL · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning — Washington Capitals
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Tampa Bay Lightning to win (65% incl. overtime), came true.
Tampa Bay Lightning are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 61%.
Why
- Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 2.6.
- Washington Capitals: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Facts
- Washington Capitals: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Tampa Bay Lightning 3 wins, Washington Capitals 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning — Washington Capitals | 3.5–2.6 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 65% | |
| Washington Capitals to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 35% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 61% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 39% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tampa Bay Lightning goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 02.10away · New York Rangers1:5
- 04.05Montreal Canadiens1:2
- 02.05away · Montreal Canadiens1:0 OT
- 30.04Montreal Canadiens2:3
- 27.04away · Montreal Canadiens3:2
- 03.10away · Carolina Hurricanes5:2
- 15.04away · Columbus Blue Jackets2:1
- 12.04Pittsburgh Penguins3:0
- 11.04away · Pittsburgh Penguins6:3
- 09.04away · Toronto Maple Leafs4:0
Head to head
- 23.11.2025Washington Capitals — Tampa Bay Lightning3:5
- 09.11.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Washington Capitals3:2
- 15.10.2025Washington Capitals — Tampa Bay Lightning3:2 OT
- 01.03.2025Washington Capitals — Tampa Bay Lightning1:3
- 28.11.2024Tampa Bay Lightning — Washington Capitals4:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 21 | Washington Capitals | 6 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 22 | Nashville Predators | 6 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
Next matches
- Tampa Bay LightningPhiladelphia Flyers6 October · NHL58421The most likely outcome came true: 124%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.1
- Washington CapitalsPittsburgh Penguins8 October · NHL52481The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 5:2.5.8
NHL on the same day
- 73271The most likely outcome came true: 119%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 49512The most likely outcome came true: 222%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:3.5.9
- 60401The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 48522The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.6
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 122%6:5OTFinal score 6:5 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 44562The most likely outcome came true: 222%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
- 54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%6:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 5:2.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →