NHL · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks — Calgary Flames
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4:1Missed
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Calgary Flames to win (52% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 52% fails in about 48 matches out of 100 on average.
Close to a coin flip: Vancouver Canucks 48%, Calgary Flames 52% including overtime.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 60%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 3.0 and 3.1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vancouver Canucks — Calgary Flames | 3.0–3.1 | |
| Vancouver Canucks to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Calgary Flames to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 60% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 40% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Vancouver Canucks
- Vancouver Canucks goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.10Edmonton Oilers7:9
- 30.09away · Edmonton Oilers6:5 OT
- 17.04away · Edmonton Oilers1:6
- 15.04Los Angeles Kings4:3 OT
- 13.04away · Anaheim Ducks4:3 OT
- 02.10Seattle Kraken1:6
- 17.04Los Angeles Kings3:1
- 15.04Colorado Avalanche1:3
- 13.04Utah Mammoth4:1
- 12.04away · Seattle Kraken1:4
Head to head
- 29.03.2026Calgary Flames — Vancouver Canucks7:3
- 24.11.2025Vancouver Canucks — Calgary Flames2:5
- 10.10.2025Vancouver Canucks — Calgary Flames5:1
- 13.03.2025Calgary Flames — Vancouver Canucks3:4 SO
- 01.01.2025Calgary Flames — Vancouver Canucks3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Detroit Red Wings | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 28 | Vancouver Canucks | 8 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
| 29 | Chicago Blackhawks | 7 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
| 31 | Los Angeles Kings | 5 | 0 | -10 | 2 |
| 32 | Calgary Flames | 6 | 1 | -17 | 2 |
Next matches
- Seattle KrakenCalgary Flames5 October · NHL55451The most likely outcome came true: 124%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.1
- Vancouver CanucksVegas Golden Knights5 October · NHL29712The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
NHL on the same day
- 73271The most likely outcome came true: 119%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 49512The most likely outcome came true: 222%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:3.5.9
- 60401The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 48522The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.6
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 122%6:5OTFinal score 6:5 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 44562The most likely outcome came true: 222%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
- 54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%6:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →